EXIST v2 Tom

Forecast

EXIST_bottom_up_SKU_forecast TURN3 · as of 12 Oct 2026

Bear

Bull

Same doors, same SKUs, same dates. Sell-through rate is the unknown — Bear calibrated to Anna's January; Bull treats Goop's opening order as a monthly rate.

Bear 2027 sell-in

£952.1K

Anna £535.3K

Bull 2027 sell-in

£7.6M

P&L · Bear 2027

Wholesale sell-in

£952.1K

Wholesale gross profit

£428.2K

D2C sales

£150.0K

Total gross profit

£540.7K

Operating costs

−£750.0K

IBG commission

−£95.2K

EBITDA

−£304.5K

Net profit after tax

−£304.5K

Sell-in by family · Bear vs Bull 2027

SPACELIP clear

£74.7K → £597.3K

SPACELIP Tinted

£238.6K → £1.9M

EQUINOX

£182.3K → £1.5M

Active Colours

£152.8K → £1.2M

Lipstick

£205.7K → £1.6M

Cooling stick

£9.8K → £78.7K

EXIST Reds

£88.2K → £705.3K

Quarterly sell-in · Bear

Q1 27

£36.6K

Q2 27

£164.4K

Q3 27

£378.6K

Q4 27

£372.5K