Workbook

The board has one decision this month: fund £550k to reach April 2027 and find out whether the wholesale plan works; fund a £70k bridge and sell the assets in an orderly way; or do nothing and let an administrator sell them. Everything in this workbook exists to inform that choice. Tab: Decision.

£26k of cash on 2 October, about £6k by 5 October on the CFO's own model. £48k of supplier bills overdue in Xero and £175k owed in total. Two products on sale, £9k a month online. 6,224 units in stock, 18,000 Tinted arriving February 2027 after a sixth delay, 69,000 more units dated June to October 2027. One wholesale order from Goop, not yet invoiced. Tabs: Assumptions, Stock and cash.

The 42 doors Anna and Franck plan to open and when (Doors tab). The 61 SKUs, their prices, costs, go live dates and supplier terms (SKUs and Assumptions tabs). The lean cost base from November, about £50k a month. None of these is in dispute.

How fast a retailer sells each product off the shelf. There is no sell-through data for a single wholesale door. Everything else being fixed, this one number moves 2027 revenue from £1m to £8m. The model runs it at three levels: Bear (calibrated to Anna's January), Realistic (the website's rate per door) and Bull (Goop's opening order treated as a monthly rate). Tab: Assumptions, rows 8 to 17.

Bear: £952k of wholesale sell-in in 2027, £1.3m in 2028. Realistic: £2.9m and £3.9m. Bull: £7.6m and £10.5m. Same doors, same SKUs, same dates. Anna's own plan is £565k for 2027 and has no 2028. Tabs: Summary, Bear vs Bull, To 2031.

Wholesale gross margin is about 42% at current prices (EXIST receives 55% of the retailer's ex VAT price; unit cost £8 to £13), 30% on Anna's proposed lower prices. IBG takes 10% of net sales on top. The capsule, 60% of volume, earns £4 to £7 a unit. Tab: Bear vs Bull P&L, Assumptions family table.

Every family reorders at supplier MOQ (10,000 for KDC and MYC lines, 3,000 a shade for B.Kolor) with a four month lead time and 30 to 50% deposits. Bear orders once per family, about £844k over two years, £750k of it in 2027. Bull orders every month from now, 300,000 units and £2.1m of cash before May 2027. The cash goes out six months before the sales come in. Tab: Stock and cash.

£170k in October in every case to stay solvent and clear overdue bills. £550k to March 2027 on the plan the CFO has costed. To December 2027: Bear about £1.2m with MOQ reorders, Realistic £2.4m, Bull £4.9m. After April, with evidence: £2m (Realistic) or £4m (Bull) at £15 to 20m pre-money, then a Series A late 2027. Tabs: Decision, Funding rounds.

Today: £12.5m is a syndicate price, not a market one; on trading it is worth nothing, on IP and brand £1 to 3m. In 2031: Bear £17 to 26m, Realistic £50 to 70m, Bull £330 to 490m at 4 to 6x revenue. The £250m in the deck is a Bull outcome in 2030. Tab: To 2031.

Goop's reorder within 60 days of the opening order, Tinted on shelf in February, and one quarter of sell-through across ten doors by April. Tab: Milestones.

Opening balance mislinked (£8.7k high every week). The £781k launch plan not in the cash forecast. Sales forecast at nil. Stock 4,800 in the model, 6,224 in the stock file. Three cash balances for one week. See the separate review and the Assumptions tab sources.

A £70k secured bridge to sell the brand, IP, formulations, tooling and stock with the lights on. Likely £1 to 3m. Without it the alternative is administration and a fraction of that. Decide this week; directors are exposed on wrongful trading once the company keeps buying what it cannot pay for.